01 - This is how innovative companies drive sustainable change
Stop predicting the future, start creating it.
Learn how backcasting shifts business strategy from incremental progress to visionary transformation. Explore why this mindset fuels sustainability, innovation, and leadership success.
Stop Trying to Predict the Future, Start Creating It
Boardroom Briefs with Frans Versteeg
Businesses are obsessed with forecasting. They analyze past performance, extrapolate trends,
and set incremental goals for the future. But in a rapidly changing world, relying on the past to shape the future is a flawed approach.
Instead of forecasting, it’s time to embrace backcasting—a mindset shift that starts with the desired future and works backward to define the actions required today.
What Is Backcasting?
Traditional forecasting asks, What have we done before, and how can we do it slightly better? This approach leads to incremental progress but rarely to transformative change.
Backcasting, on the other hand, starts with a bold vision. It asks, Where do we want to be in 10 years? Once that vision is clear, the strategy is built by identifying the milestones and actions needed to get there.
Why Backcasting Works
Let’s take sustainability as an example.
A forecasting approach might set a goal: Next year, we’ll reduce waste by 30%. That’s a solid improvement, but it still assumes waste is inevitable.
Backcasting flips this thinking: In 10 years, we will have zero waste. What do we need to do today to move toward that goal?
By defining a transformative vision and working backward, organizations can reimagine what’s possible rather than settling for incremental progress.
The Power of Backcasting in Business
Backcasting fuels:
Visionary Thinking: It forces leaders to break free from past limitations and imagine a radically different future.
Engaged Teams: Employees find motivation in meaningful, ambitious goals rather than marginal improvements.
Stronger Stakeholder Alignment: Suppliers, partners, and clients are more likely to rally behind a bold vision than a minor efficiency gain.
Sustainable Innovation: The best way to build a truly sustainable business is to redefine the future, not adjust the past.
Are You Forecasting or Backcasting?
Most businesses predict the future. The best ones create it.
If you’re ready to move from incremental change to transformation, stop forecasting. Start
backcasting. Start with the vision and take the first step toward it today.
Video Highlights:
00:00 Stop Predicting, Start Creating
00:09 Understanding Backcasting
00:22 The Traditional Forecasting Approach
00:41 Advantages of Backcasting
00:55 A Practical Example of Backcasting
01:54 Engaging Stakeholders with Backcasting
02:29 Creating a Sustainable Future
Links:
Website: https://www.fransversteeg.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fransaversteeg/
Transcript:
Stop trying to predict the future. Start to create your future.
Stop forecasting, start backcasting.
Start with a vision and work back from the vision, from the dream that you have, back to what needs to be done today to create that vision. The normal way that companies work is through forecasting. What have we done in the last years?
What are we going to do in the next year? Taking that we will probably, do 5, 10, whatever percent better. And so it's the same, but better. The big advantage of, backcasting is that you start with a new vision. So you take this point on the horizon and start working backwards from that point on the horizon.
Let me give you an example.
Next year, we're going to reduce [00:01:00] waste by 30%.
We all know waste is a given. But next year, we're We're going to reduce waste by 30 percent. Backcasting would say in 10 years time we'll no longer have waste. And this year, we're going to start by having 30 percent less waste. And the whole idea of waste changes by defining this moment on the horizon.
In a number of years, we will be there. Then you start changing all the concepts you have. And it gives you the possibility To really become more free in designing a sustainable business.
Because if anything is needed to create really sustainable businesses, it would be by backcasting.
So when you do backcasting, what can you expect? Well, you can [00:02:00] expect fascinating visions, completely unexpected goals. You can expect engaged employees. It's so much more fun when you can have your company say, we're going to abolish the whole concept of waste.
That is something that people really feel motivated to do. and inspired by. It will also engage your suppliers and most of all it will also engage your clients. Nowadays it's more and more important that you can brand your company as being a sustainable business. You're not just doing the same all over again and you're not repeating what you've done very well in the past.
You're no longer predicting the future. You're basically Creating it. You're backcasting.